Analysis and Forecast on China Dairy Industry (2016-2017)

  • ID: 4397061
  • Report
  • Region: China
  • 111 Pages
  • Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Ausnutria Hyproca
  • Beingmate
  • BiosTime
  • Bright Dairy
  • Huishan
  • Mengniu
  • MORE

Introduction

2016 witnessed the transition of the dairy farming industry from extensive quantity growth to intensive quality growth. The dairy industry transited from unconventional disordered development to steady orderly development. Owing to the slip of feed cost, the composition of products converged towards top-end products with high gross margin. The profit of the dairy processing industry rose considerably.

I. International and Domestic Raw Milk Market

  • During most of the time in 2016, milk production in both the world and Chin was sluggish thanks to raw milk oversupply, of which the EU, USA and New Zealand had stable raw milk production, whereas South America saw a sharp decline of production due to drought.
  • Although the international raw milk price started to bounce from the bottom from August, yet the margin of dairy farming did not rally much pursuant to the concurrent upsurge of feed price.
  • Raw milk price has been lingering around 3.40 yuan/kg for a long time, more and more smallholder farms and small-size farms give up dairy farming, which led a slide of dairy cattle inventory for two years in a row.

II. Dairy Processing Market

  • The production of processed dairy products continued to grow in China in 2016 thanks to the growth of both the liquid milk and yogurt market.
  • The market of infant formula was sluggish due to the impact from the new  “registration”policy.
  • The turnover of the dairy processing industry grew at a low speed, whereas the growth of both gross margin and net profit was better than the turnover. Various processing companies saw rise of gross margin despite great differences in inventory or current asset turnover, but on the whole the processing industry was steady.

China’s Dairy Industry Shall still have Sound Development Opportunities:

  • The per capita dairy consumption of Chinese residents is less than 30kg, less than 1/4 of the world average. More and more residents recognize the nutritious value of dairy products and hence the market enjoys a huge potential.
  • Both dairy processing and trade are further regulated, the dairy market competition is regulated as well, and the profit of dairy processing is on the rise.
  • The second-child policy shall see effects in 2017. The net increase of population shall be over 1.5 million and there shall be 10 billion yuan new demand for infant formula.
  • Yili became one in the Top 10 dairy companies in the world in 2016. The overseas production centers of Yili, Mengniu and Synutra are in operation and Chinese dairy processing companies shall continue their internationalization strategy.

This Report panoramically expounds the current situation of China dairy industry in 2016, including the production of raw milk and dairy product, dairy consumption, dairy trade, price tendency of raw milk and dairy product, operational condition of China dairy industry, competitive situation of China dairy market, business performance and investment situation of key dairy enterprise, world dairy market trend, production, consumption and trade status of major countries of dairy production and trade, influence of work dairy market environment upon China diary industry, and the forecasting upon the development tendency of China diary industry in 2017.

This Report is the crystallization of collective intelligence of dairy research group. The senior dairy analysts of the dairy research group are the members of “thinking bank” in related government departments and associations, who keep good relationships with these departments and associations as well as national key dairy enterprise, correlative industry and enterprise. These resource superiorities provide particularly precious professional support for the composition of this report, and also guarantee the accuracy, authority, scientificity and perspectiveness of the data cited herein. It's believed this report will be the important reference material for strategic decision-making of domestic and overseas investment company, dairy enterprise, dairy burdening supplier, and related equipment supplier as well as such organizations as guild and research institution.

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Ausnutria Hyproca
  • Beingmate
  • BiosTime
  • Bright Dairy
  • Huishan
  • Mengniu
  • MORE

1. Policy Environment for Dairy Industry in China

2. World Dairy Market in 2016
2.1 Overview
2.1.1 Gross Demand for Dairy Products in the World
2.1.2 Global Raw Milk and Processed Dairy Production
2.1.3 Global Prices of Raw Milk & Dairy Products
2.2 Dairy Market of Key Dairy Producing and Trading Countries in 2016
2.2.1 New Zealand
2.2.2 Australia
2.2.3 USA
2.2.4 EU

3. 2016 Dairy Cattle Farming Status in China
3.1 Overviews
3.2 Dairy Cattle Farming Distribution
3.3 Dairy Cattle Inventory
3.4 Raw Milk Production and Milk Yield Per-Cow
3.5 Raw Milk Price
3.6 Dairy Cattle Farming Cost and Profit
3.6.1 Dairy Cattle Farming Cost
3.6.2 Dairy Cattle Farming Profit
3.6.3 Comparative Analysis of Dairy Cattle Farming Cost and Profit in Major Provinces
3.7 Scale & Models of Dairy Cattle Farming in China
3.7.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory by Different Farming Scale
3.7.2 Analysis of Dairy Cattle Farming Models

4. 2016 Dairy Industry Analysis in China
4.1 Production and Management of Dairy Industry
4.1.1 Overviews
4.1.2 Sales Revenue& Profit
4.2 Dairy Processing
4.2.1 Liquid Milk
4.2.2 Solid Dairy Products
4.2.3 Milk Powder
4.2.4 Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder
4.2.5 Other Solid Products

5. Trade of Dairy Products and Other Relevant Products in 2016
5.1 Dairy Trade
5.1.1 Change in Dairy Imports & Export Volume       and Value
5.1.2Changes in Dairy Imports & Exports by Categories
5.2 Liquid Milk Import
5.2.1 Liquid Milk Imports Volume and Value
5.2.2 Liquid Milk Imports by Categories
5.2.3 Liquid Milk Import Source
5.3 Milk Powder Import
5.3.1 Milk Powder Imports Volume and Value
5.3.2 Milk Powder Imports by Categories
5.3.3 Milk Powder Import Source
5.4 Dry Whey Import
5.4.1 Dry Whey Imports Volume and Value
5.4.2 Dry Whey Import Source
5.5 Milk Fat Import
5.5.1 Milk Fat Imports Volume and Value
5.5.2 Milk Fat Import Source
5.6 Cheese Import
5.6.1 Cheese Imports Volume and Value
5.6.2 Cheese Import Source
5.7 Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder Import
5.7.1 Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder Imports Volume and Value
5.7.2 Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder Import Source
5.8 Dairy Related Products Import
5.8.1 Casein Import
5.8.2 Whey Protein Concentrate (WPC) Import
5.8.3 Lactose Anhydrous Import
5.8.4 Ice Cream Import
5.9 Dairy Cattle, Gene Products and Feed Import
5.9.1 Elite-breed Cattle, Frozen Semen
5.9.2 Alfalfa
5.10 Dairy Export
5.10.1 Overview
5.10.2 Structure of Dairy Export
5.10.3 Fresh Milk Export
5.10.4 Milk Powder Export

6. Dairy Consumption in China
6.1 Overview
6.2 Analysis of Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents
6.3 Regional Analysis of Dairy Consumption by Urban Residents
6.4 Dairy Consumption by Rural Residents
6.5 Retail Price for Dairy Products
6.5.1 Fresh Milk and Yogurt
6.5.2 Milk Powder
6.6 Market Capacity for Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder
6.6.1 National Market Capacity
6.6.2 Market Capacity of Cities in Different Regions
6.7 Other Elements Affecting Dairy Prices
6.7.1 Price for White Sugar
6.7.2 CPI
6.7.3 RMB Exchange Rate
6.7.4 Petroleum Price

7. Competition of China’s Dairy Market
7.1 Overview
7.2 Raw Milk Market
7.3 Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder
7.3.1 Market Environment
7.3.2 Market Share of Main Competitors
7.4 Liquid Milk

8. Key Dairy Processing Companies in 2016
8.1 Overview Consolidation of Dairy Companies
8.2 Key Companies
8.2.1 National Enterprise (Yili, Mengniu, Bright Dairy)
8.2.2 Regional Enterprises (Sanyuan, Huishan, Yantang)
8.2.3 Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Producers (Beingmate, BiosTime, Ausnutria Hyproca)
8.2.4 Raw Milk Suppliers (Modern Farming, YuanShengTai)

9. Outlook of China’s Dairy Industry in 2017
9.1 Overview
9.2 Raw Milk Production
9.2.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory
9.2.2 Milk Production
9.2.3 Layout of Dairy Farming
9.2.4 Farming Profit
9.3 Dairy Processing
9.3.1 Main Varieties
9.3.2 Other Dairy Products
9.4 Dairy Trade
9.4.1 Import
9.4.2 Export
9.5 Price Trend of Raw Milk and Dairy Products
9.5.1 Raw Milk
9.5.2 Dairy Products
9.6 Dairy Consumption
9.7 Competition Pattern of Dairy Market
 
Annexes:

Annex I: Balance Sheet of Supply and Demand of Raw Milk in China ,2013-2016
Annex II: Balance Sheet of Supply and Demand of WMP in China, 2013-2016
Annex III: Balance Sheet of Supply and Demand of SMP in China, 2013-2016
Annex IV: Balance Sheet of Supply and Demand of Butter & Others Oils/Fats from Milk in China, 2013-2016
Annex V: Balance Sheet of Supply and Demand of Cheese in China, 2013-2016
 
List of Figures

Figure 2.1 World Milk Prices, 2010-2016
Figure 2.2 Global Prices of Feed for Dairy Cattle, 2010-2016
Figure 2.3 Global Average Milk: feed Price Ratio Trend, 2010-2016
Figure 2.4 Global Prices (FAS) of WMP, 2010-2016
Figure 2.5 Global Prices (FAS) of SMP, 2010-2016
Figure 2.6 Global Prices (FAS) of Butter, 2014-2016
Figure 2.7 Global Prices (FAS) of AMF, 2010-2016
Figure 2.8 Global Prices (FAS) of Cheddar Cheese, 2014-2016
Figure 2.9 Production of Australian raw milk 2010-2016
Figure 2.10 Export proportion of Australian 2015
Figure 2.11 The number and proportion of China from imported Australian cows, 2010-2015
Figure 2.12 Trend of Average Milk Prices in USA, by Month, 2012-2016
Figure 3.1 Changes of Dairy Cattle Inventory in China, 2010-2016
Figure 3.2 Raw Milk Production in China, 2010-2016
Figure 3.3 Regional Layout of Raw Milk Production of China, 2016
Figure 3.4 Trend of Raw Milk Price in the Ten Main Producing Provinces in China, 2010-2016
Figure 3.5 China Corn &Soybean Meal Wholesale Prices Trend, by Month, 2010-2016
Figure 3.6 China Dairy Cattle Farming Benefits (milk price vs feed price), 2010-2016
Figure 4.1 Liquid Milk Production in China, 2010-2016
Figure 4.2 China Liquid Milk Output Trend, by Month, 2010-2016
Figure 4.3 Area Distribution of Liquid Milk Output Production in China, 2016
Figure 4.4 Structure of Liquid Milk, by Volume, 2010-2016
Figure 4.5 Different Liquid Milk Production in China, 2010-2016
Figure 4.6 Trend of Solid Dairy Production, 2010-2016
Figure 4.7 Share of Leading Provincial Solid Dairy Production in National Total, 2016
Figure 4.8 Trend of Milk Powder Production in China, 2010-2016
Figure 4.9 Proportion of Provincial Milk Powder Production in National Total, 2016
Figure 5.1 Dairy Products Import Structure, by Quantity, 2010-2016
Figure 5.2 Powder Import to China, by Month, 2010-2016
Figure 5.3 Trend of CIF Price for Imported Powder, by Month, 2010-2016
Figure 5.4 Price (CIF) for Dry Whey Import to China, by Month, 2010-2016
Figure 5.5 Origins of Milk fat Import and Changes, 2010-2016
Figure 5.6 Price (CIF) for Butter and Anhydrous Milk fat, 2010-2016
Figure 5.7 Structure of Cheese Import to China, by Volume, 2016
Figure 5.8 China Cheese Import Trend, by Quantity, 2010-2016
Figure 5.9 China Cheese Import Price (CIF) Trend, 2010-2016
Figure 5.10 Average Import Prices (CIF) of Different Kinds of Cheese of China, 2016
Figure 5.11 Share of Import of Fresh Milk & Cream of Leading Provinces of China, by Volume, 2016
Figure 5.12 Structure of Fresh Milk& Cream Import, by Fat Content and Import Quantity, 2016
Figure 5.13 Trend of CIF Price for Fresh Milk& Cream with Different Fat Content, 2010-2016
Figure 5.14 China Import Origins of Fresh Milk& Cream, by Volume, 2016
Figure 5.15 China Import Origins of Yogurt, by Volume, 2016
Figure 5.16 Lactose Import Price (CIF) of China, by Month, 2010-2016
Figure 5.17 Lactalbumin Import Price (CIF) of China, 2010-2016
Figure 5.18 Origins of Import of Lactalbumin of China, by Volume, 2016
Figure 5.19 Import Quantity and CIF Price for Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder, 2010-2016
Figure 5.20 Import Share of Infant Formula Milk Powder of the Leading Places of Origin in China, by Volume, 2016
Figure 5.21 Structure of Dairy Export from China, by Volume, 2016
Figure 5.22 China Fresh Milk & Cream (H.S.0401) Exports Trend, by Month, 2010-2016
Figure 5.24 China Milk Powder Exports Trend, by Month, 2010-2016
Figure 5.25 China Milk Powder Export Market Share, by Volume, 2016
Figure 6.1 Per Capita milk and Dairy Consumption Quantity of Rural Residents, 1990-2016
Figure 6.2 Fresh Milk and Yogurt Price of the Urban Market, by Quarter, 2010-2016
Figure 6.3 Retail Prices of Infant Formula Milk Powder in China, by Month, 2010-2016
Figure 6.4 Regional Layout of Population of Infants and Young Children and Market Capacity of Infant/young Child’s Formula Milk Powder of Urban Areas in Different Provinces (by Consumption Quantity), 2016
Figure 6.5 Average Price for White Granulated Sugar (cargo delivery price in producing venues), by Month, 2010-2016
Figure 6.6 CPI Growing Trend in China, by Month, 2010-2016
Figure 6.7 Trend of Exchange Rate between USD and RMB, by Month, 2010-2016
Figure 6.8 Trend of International Petroleum Future Price, by Month, 2012-2016
Figure 7.1 Product Structure of Yashili, 2016
Figure 7.2 Contribution to Turnover of Different Products of Bios Time, 2016
Figure 9.1 Forecast of 2017 China’s Dairy Cattle Inventory and Milk Production
Figure 9.2 Forecast of 2017 Percentage of Dairy Cattle Farms with more 100 Inventories
Figure 9.3 Forecast of 2017 China Dairy Output
Figure 9.4 Forecast of 2017 China Liquid Milk Output
Figure 9.5 Forecast of 2017 China Milk Powder Output
Figure 9.6 Forecast of 2017 China Dairy Imports
Figure 9.7 Forecast of 2017 China Milk Powder Imports
Figure 9.8 Forecast of 2017 China Whey Powder Imports
Figure 9.9 Forecast of 2017 China Non-Fermented Liquid Milk Imports
Figure 9.10 Forecast of 2017 China Cheese Imports
 
List of Tables

Table 2.1 Fluid Milk - Cow Numbers: Summary for Selected Countries, 2010-2016
Table 2.2 Cows Milk Production and Consumption: Summary for Selected Countries, 2010-2016
Table 2.3 Top 20 Milk Processors List 2015
Table 2.4 Butter Production and Consumption: Summary for Selected Countries, 2010-2016
Table 2.5 Cheese Production and Consumption: Summary for Selected Countries, 2010-2016
Table 2.6 Nonfat Dry Milk Trade: Summary for Selected Countries, 2010-2016
Table 2.7 Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption: Summary for Selected Countries, 2010-2016
Table 2.8 Dairy Cattle Inventory and Milk Production in the US, 2012-2016
Table 2.9 Dairy Production of USA, 2014-2016
Table 3.1 Feed Prices and Costs for Dairy Cattle Farming in Major Producing Provinces, 2014-2016
Table 3.2 Raw Milk Price and Dairy Cattle Farming Profit in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2014-2016
Table 3.3 Raw Milk Price and Dairy Cattle Farming Cost & Profit in Major Milk Producing Provinces, 2015-2016
Table 3.4 The Division Standard of Different Cattle Inventory Sizes
Table 3.5 Cattle Inventory Proportion of Different Dairy Farming Models in China
Table 4.1 Development Indices of Dairy Industry, 2010-2016
Table 4.2 Asset Management Ratio of Dairy Industry, 2010-2016
Table 5.1 China Dairy Products Import, 2013-2016
Table 5.2 China Milk Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Product Category, 2016-2016
Table 5.3 China Whey Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Source Country, 2016-2016
Table 5.4 China Whey Powder Import Volumes & Prices by Source Country, 2016-2016
Table 5.5 China Frozen Semen Import Price by Original Country, 2012-2016
Table 5.6 Dairy Export from China, 2016-2016
Table 6.1 Per Capita Dairy Possession Quantity in China, 1992-2016
Table 6.2 Share of Per capita Consumption of Dairy Products in the Total Food Consumption of Urban Residents, 2010-2016
Table 7.1 Infant formula Milk Powder Consumption Level Per Capita of China’s Urban and Rural Babies, 2010-2016

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  • Ausnutria Hyproca
  • Beingmate
  • BiosTime
  • Bright Dairy
  • Huishan
  • Mengniu
  • Modern Farming
  • Sanyuan
  • Yantang
  • Yili
  • YuanShengTai
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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