1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Key Findings at a Glance
1.2 Market Size and Growth, 2027-2037
1.3 Where the Value Goes: Devices and Architectures
1.4 Supply Constraints in Brief
1.5 Recent Developments, 2025-2026
1.6 Scenario Summary
1.7 Strategic Imperatives
2 INTRODUCTION, SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
2.1 Report Scope
2.2 Methodology
2.3 Comparison With Other Future Markets Forecasts
2.4 Why Compound Semiconductors?
2.5 Device Technologies Covered
3 AI INFRASTRUCTURE DEMAND DRIVERS
3.1 Bandwidth per Accelerator and the Interconnect Wall
3.2 Network Tiers: Scale-Up, Scale-Out and Scale-Across
3.3 Reach Decides the Technology
3.4 Lane-Rate Roadmap
3.5 Laser Content per Link: Pluggables, LPO, CPO and Optical I/O
3.6 Drivers and Restraints
4 INP DEVICE TECHNOLOGIES
4.1 The InP Photonics Platform
4.2 Electro-Absorption Modulated Lasers (EML)
4.3 Directly Modulated Lasers (DML)
4.4 CW-DFB Lasers for Silicon Photonics
4.5 High-Power and Ultra-High-Power CW Lasers for NPO and CPO
4.6 DWDM Laser Arrays and Multi-Wavelength Sources for Optical I/O
4.7 Coherent Components: Tunable Lasers, IQ Modulators and Receivers
4.8 Semiconductor Optical Amplifiers
4.9 InP Photodiodes
4.10 Monolithic InP PICs
4.11 InP Device Benchmark
5 GAAS DEVICE TECHNOLOGIES
5.1 The GaAs Photonics Platform
5.2 850 nm VCSELs for Short-Reach AI Links
5.3 VCSEL Arrays for Slow-and-Wide Scale-Up and NPO
5.4 GaAs Photodiodes
5.5 Quantum-Dot Lasers on GaAs
5.6 GaAs vs InP vs Silicon Photonics for Short Reach
6 INTEGRATION WITH SILICON PHOTONICS AND COMPETING PLATFORMS
6.1 Why Integration Matters for InP Demand
6.2 Hybrid Flip-Chip Integration
6.3 Heterogeneous III-V-on-Silicon
6.4 Micro-Transfer Printing and Monolithic Growth
6.5 Competing Modulator Platforms
7 SUBSTRATE, WAFER AND EPITAXY TECHNOLOGY
7.1 InP Crystal Growth: VGF, VB and LEC
7.2 Wafer Diameter Roadmap
7.3 Epitaxy: MOCVD and MBE
7.4 Device Fab and Test Bottlenecks
8 MARKET FORECASTS 2021-2037
8.1 Forecast Assumptions
8.2 Total Bare-Die Market by Device Technology
8.3 Bare-Die Volumes
8.4 Average Selling Prices
8.5 Market by Network Architecture
8.6 InP vs GaAs
8.7 Epiwafer Market
8.8 Substrate Market
8.9 Total Value Chain
8.10 Market by Region of Manufacture
8.11 Scenario Analysis
9 SUPPLY CHAIN AND CAPACITY
9.1 InP Laser Supply Chain
9.2 GaAs Laser Supply Chain
9.3 Substrate Suppliers
9.4 Epiwafer Suppliers
9.5 Device Makers and Foundries
9.6 Capacity vs Demand: InP Substrates
9.7 Capacity vs Demand: InP Laser Die
9.8 Lead Times and Pricing Indicators
9.9 Geographic Footprint
10 INVESTMENT, M&A AND STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS
10.1 NVIDIA and Hyperscaler Investments in Laser Supply
10.2 Fab and Capacity Investments
10.3 Venture Funding for Photonics Start-ups
10.4 Government Support Programmes
10.5 Mergers and Acquisitions
11 CHINA, CRITICAL MINERALS AND EXPORT CONTROLS
11.1 Indium and Gallium Supply
11.2 Export Control Timeline
11.3 Impact on the Substrate Market
11.4 China's Domestic Photonics Chip Industry
11.5 Geopolitical Scenarios
12 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
12.1 Bare-Die Market Shares
12.2 InP Substrate Market Shares
12.3 Strategic Positioning
13 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP AND OUTLOOK
13.1 Technology Roadmap 2025-2037
13.2 Opportunity Assessment
13.3 Outlook and Conclusions
15 APPENDIX
15.1 Annual Forecast Data, 2021-2037
15.2 Glossary
15.3 Principal Public Sources
LIST OF TABLES
InP and GaAs photonics for AI: key market metrics, 2025-2037 (US$ million)
Selected developments in InP and GaAs photonics for AI, 2025-2026
Bare-die market scenarios, 2027-2037 (US$ million)
Definition of value-chain levels used in this report
Key properties of photonic semiconductor platforms
InP and GaAs device technologies covered in this report
AI network tiers and their compound-semiconductor content
Lane-rate generations and compound-semiconductor implications
Laser configuration by optical architecture
Market drivers and restraints, 2027-2037
EML generations for AI optics
CW laser power classes and applications
Multi-wavelength source approaches for optical I/O
Benchmark of InP device categories for AI optics (2026)
VCSEL generations for data-centre optics
Short-reach technology comparison (< =100 m)
Laser integration approaches compared
Modulator platforms and impact on InP content
InP and GaAs substrate growth methods
Wafer diameter transitions for InP and GaAs photonics
Epitaxy and process equipment for InP and GaAs photonics
Bare-die market by device technology, 2025-2037 (US$ million)
Bare-die shipments by device technology, 2025-2037 (million units)
Average selling price by device technology, 2025-2037 (US$ per die)
Bare-die market by network architecture, 2025-2037 (US$ million)
Bare-die market by substrate material, 2025-2037 (US$ million)
Epiwafer volume and open-market value, 2025-2037
Substrate demand and revenue from AI photonics, 2025-2037
Bare-die revenue by region of manufacture, 2025-2037 (US$ million)
Bare-die market scenarios, 2025-2037 (US$ million)
InP substrate suppliers: capacity and expansion
GaAs substrate suppliers relevant to AI photonics
Open-market epiwafer suppliers for InP and GaAs photonics
InP and GaAs photonic device makers for AI
InP supply-chain lead times and pricing indicators,
Geographic footprint of InP and GaAs photonics manufacturing
Strategic investments by GPU vendors and hyperscalers in photonics supply, 2025-2026
Device fab expansions for AI photonics, 2024-2026
Substrate capacity investments, 2025-2026
Venture funding rounds for photonics start-ups relevant to InP/GaAs photonics for AI, Q2 2025 - Oct
Government programmes supporting InP/GaAs photonics
Selected M&A in compound-semiconductor photonics, 2022-2026
Chinese export controls relevant to InP and GaAs photonics
Selected Chinese InP and GaAs photonic chip suppliers
Estimated bare-die market shares by supplier,
Strategic positioning of leading players
Technology roadmap milestones
Opportunity and risk assessment by segment
Bare-die revenue by device technology, 2021-2029 (US$ million)
Bare-die revenue by device technology, 2030-2037 (US$ million)
Bare-die shipments by device technology, 2021-2029 (million units)
Bare-die shipments by device technology, 2030-2037 (million units)
Glossary of terms
LIST OF FIGURES
InP and GaAs photonics for AI: bare-die market, 2021-2037 (US$ million)
Bare-die revenue by device technology, 2027 vs 2037 (US$ million)
Share of bare-die revenue by network architecture, 2025-2037
InP and GaAs photonics value chain and scope of this report
Optical modules in AI scale-up and scale-out networks by data rate, 2026-2036 (million units)
Optical technologies by reach in AI data centres
Lane-rate and laser-architecture roadmap for AI optics, 2024-2038
Typical InP/GaAs laser die per 1.6 Tb/s of link capacity by architecture
Typical maximum output power of CW lasers for AI optics, 2022-2030
Maximum multimode (OM4) reach of 850 nm VCSEL links by lane rate
Laser integration approaches for silicon photonics: maturity timeline
Usable wafer area by diameter relative to 3-inch (5 mm edge exclusion)
Diameter mix of InP wafer starts for AI photonic devices (share of 4-inch-equivalent area), 2021-2037
Bare-die market by device technology, 2021-2037 (US$ million)
Bare-die shipments for selected device technologies, 2025-2037 (million units, log scale)
ASP index for selected device technologies, 2025-2037 (2025 = 100)
Bare-die market by network architecture, 2021-2037 (US$ million)
InP share of bare-die revenue, 2021-2037
InP epiwafer starts for AI devices: captive vs open market, 2021-2037 (thousand 4-inch-equivalent wafers)
InP substrate demand from AI photonic devices by diameter, 2021-2037 (thousand 4-inch-equivalent wafers)
InP substrate revenue: AI photonics vs other applications, 2021-2037 (US$ million)
Blended InP substrate ASP, 2021-2037 (US$ per 4-inch-equivalent wafer)
Total InP and GaAs photonics for AI value chain (bare die + open epiwafers + substrates), 2021-2037 (US$ million)
Bare-die revenue by region of manufacture, 2025, 2031 and
Bare-die market scenarios, 2025-2037 (US$ million)
InP substrates: from nameplate capacity to net sellable supply, 2026 (Future Markets estimate)
Supply as a percentage of demand: InP laser chips and device-grade InP substrates, 2024-2031
Selected announced investments in InP/GaAs photonics capacity, 2024-2026 (US$ million)
Largest venture rounds in optical interconnect start-ups relevant to InP/GaAs photonics, Q2 2025 - Oct 2026 (US$ million)
China share of world indium and gallium supply
Timeline of Chinese export controls affecting InP and GaAs photonics, 2023-2026
Estimated bare-die market shares, 2025 (% of revenue, incl. captive at merchant value)
Estimated InP substrate market shares, 2025 (% of revenue, all applications)
InP and GaAs photonics technology roadmap, 2024-2038
Opportunity map: 2031 market size vs 2027-2037 growth by device technology (bubble size = 2037 revenue)
